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The Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) is dedicated to fostering economic diversification for the transformation of Zambia into a prosperous middle-income country. Central to this vision is the Ministry of Energy’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) – Zambia’s inaugural roadmap for the electricity sector. Aligned with GRZ’s objectives, the IRP outlines the power sector investments required to support increased mining production, industrial development, agricultural transformation, and universal electricity access by 2030. Emphasising sustainability, the IRP addresses climate change, environmental protection, job creation as well as gender and social inclusion.
The comprehensive two-year IRP development process involved extensive collaboration with a team of over 120 local energy experts and stakeholders. The IRP team reviewed Zambia’s energy landscape from which a demand assessment and least cost models for generation, transmission and distribution development were derived. A Least Cost Geospatial Electrification Plan (LCGEP) was prepared in parallel by the Rural Electricity Authority (REA), informing the least cost mode of providing electricity access to all households in Zambia, and proposing an acceleration in the deployment of off-grid solutions. A Social Safeguards Framework (SSF) was developed to ensure responsible project development, considering gender and social factors. Beyond its technical facets, the IRP serves as a foundational guide for provincial electricity planning, providing clarity to stakeholders and investors. The Ministry of Energy is committed to a collaborative, multi-sectoral implementation approach, ensuring sufficient power for all. The IRP’s dynamic energy models will continuously inform future government planning, policy, and financing decisions.
All of the key findings in the sections below can be found in the IRP Summary Report. Each of the supporting reports can be found on the resources page.
Economic Diversification: There will be significant growth in demand from agriculture, power exports, mining, residential sectors, and electric transport will emerge as a new driver of demand.
Electricity Growth Enabling Economic Growth: An increasingly diversified economy will result in a 121% increase in peak electricity demand by 2030 (5,422 MW) and a 349% increase by 2050 (11,031 MW).
Generation Growth: Generation will grow by 165% from 3,705 MW in 2023 to 10,013 MW by 2030 and a further 132% to 23,193 MW by 2050.
Generation Diversification: The increased capacity is primarily from investments in variable renewable energy sources (VRES), notably solar PV and wind power. Continued investment in hydro projects will be focused in the Northern areas of Zambia, which are considered less susceptible to adverse climate change effects.
Surge in Variable Renewables: Current VRES contribution to generation capacity is 3%, while the anticipated VRES contribution in 2030 is 33% of total generation, increasing to 56% by 2050, thus demonstrating Zambia’s continued commitment to climate-resilient solutions.
Transmission Expansion: The IRP proposes an 82% expansion in transmission line length (from 12,705 km in 2023 to 23,072 km by 2050). Nearly half is planned in the first seven years – 5,208 km by 2030.
Regional Power Hub: Investment in transmission will not only provide a robust power network to underserved provinces but will also establish Zambia as a regional power trading hub through strategic interconnector developments.
Zambia has adopted the UN Sustainable Goal 7 to “ensure access to affordable, reliable and modern energy for all by 2030”. By the year 2030, grid connections are planned to be established for 56% of the population and off-grid connections, comprising a mix of solar home systems and mini-grids, for the remaining 44%.
The successful implementation of the IRP will create 700,000 permanent new direct and indirect jobs. The potential avenues for employment creation span from power generation to developing transmission and distribution infrastructure, the supply of local construction materials, and the construction and maintenance of off-grid solar systems, thereby spurring socio-economic development across the country.
With the development of the first Social Safeguards Framework for the energy sector in Zambia, it is anticipated that this framework will be incorporated into the different phases of energy project development to mitigate social risks and create employment opportunities for disadvantaged groups. The framework provides guidelines for energy developers, contractors, and operators to ensure equal opportunities are availed to youth, women, and differently abled.
The IRP outlines a total investment of $11.6 billion by 2030 and $31.0 billion by 2050 for Zambia’s power sector. By 2030, this includes $7.2 billion for on-grid generation and $1.4 billion for transmission. On-grid generation is the largest investment, requiring $7.2 billion by 2030 and $22.8 billion by 2050, while off-grid energy access follows with an investment estimate of $2.2 billion by 2030 and $3.9 billion by 2050.
The modelling undertaken in the IRP took cognisance of the quality and quantity of generation resource in different provinces of Zambia. Map 4 and the Table below summarise the assumptions made in relation to the location of different generation sources in Zambia, and the 330 kV substations into which power would be injected, considering the IRP transmission development plan.
Solar: A solar atlas for Zambia has been developed by the World Bank-funded Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) which provides PV generation potential throughout the country. Solar PV electricity output in the range of 1,550 kWh/m2 to 1,700 kWh/m2 is possible in most areas of the country. The seasonal variability is small compared to other countries further away from the equator, qualifying Zambia as a country with high solar potential. Solar irradiation levels are relatively higher in the southern and western regions of Zambia.
Wind:
Wind speeds of between 7.0 and 8.2 m/s were measured based on a study of eight possible wind generation locations published by the World Bank ESMAP programme in 2018[1]. A wind atlas for Zambia published by ESMAP is shown in Map below. It is observed that specific areas, particularly Eastern and Muchinga Provinces, serve as the primary wind corridors, while moderate wind levels are also measured in Central and Lusaka Provinces.
Map 5 below summarises all of the transmission projects required to be implemented to guarantee security of supply under both normal and abnormal system conditions and to maintain the dynamic stability of the Zambian power system through to 2050. Detailed information on the key developments within the 330 kV, 220 kV and 132 kV transmission networks for these regions can be found in the transmission section of the IRP Summary Report. Development plans for the 88 kV and 66 kV network which have less overall significance than the projects at higher voltages are not included in the following sections but can be found in the separate IRP transmission system planning report.
The transmission plan for Zambia has been split into four zones for ease of presentation, each of which has different characteristics with respect to anticipated demand growth and actual or planned generation sources to be connected to the grid through the IRP plan period. The first zone covers Northern and Eastern areas, the second Copperbelt, the third Lusaka and the fourth Southern and Western areas of Zambia.
The modelling undertaken in the IRP took cognisance of the quality and quantity of generation resource in different provinces of Zambia. Map 4 and the Table below summarise the assumptions made in relation to the location of different generation sources in Zambia, and the 330 kV substations into which power would be injected, considering the IRP transmission development plan.
Zambia, endowed with rich resources for electricity generation, particularly from renewables, strategically plans its energy landscape across ten provinces. The Office for Promoting Private Power Investment (OPPPI), under the Ministry of Energy, coordinates the allocation process, utilizing precise records to grant feasibility study and project development rights, ensuring a competitive selection of the most viable generation projects.
Below are renewable energy resource maps included in the IRP:
Hydropower: Zambia has an operating hydropower capacity of 3,153 MW as of June 2023, and has a further hydro-generation potential of 4,553 MW based on the aggregate capacity of potential hydro project sites that have been registered with OPPPI as of June 2023. Below shows all the currently developed and potential hydro site locations in Zambia above 0.75 MW as advised by OPPPI.
Solar: A solar atlas for Zambia has been developed by the World Bank-funded Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) which provides PV generation potential throughout the country. Solar PV electricity output in the range of 1,550 kWh/m2 to 1,700 kWh/m2 is possible in most areas of the country. The seasonal variability is small compared to other countries further away from the equator, qualifying Zambia as a country with high solar potential. Solar irradiation levels are relatively higher in the southern and western regions of Zambia.
Wind:
Wind speeds of between 7.0 and 8.2 m/s were measured based on a study of eight possible wind generation locations published by the World Bank ESMAP programme in 2018[1]. A wind atlas for Zambia published by ESMAP is shown in Map below. It is observed that specific areas, particularly Eastern and Muchinga Provinces, serve as the primary wind corridors, while moderate wind levels are also measured in Central and Lusaka Provinces.
Map 5 below summarises all of the transmission projects required to be implemented to guarantee security of supply under both normal and abnormal system conditions and to maintain the dynamic stability of the Zambian power system through to 2050. Detailed information on the key developments within the 330 kV, 220 kV and 132 kV transmission networks for these regions can be found in the transmission section of the IRP Summary Report. Development plans for the 88 kV and 66 kV network which have less overall significance than the projects at higher voltages are not included in the following sections but can be found in the separate IRP transmission system planning report.
The transmission plan for Zambia has been split into four zones for ease of presentation, each of which has different characteristics with respect to anticipated demand growth and actual or planned generation sources to be connected to the grid through the IRP plan period. The first zone covers Northern and Eastern areas, the second Copperbelt, the third Lusaka and the fourth Southern and Western areas of Zambia.
The modelling undertaken in the IRP took cognisance of the quality and quantity of generation resource in different provinces of Zambia. Map 4 and the Table below summarise the assumptions made in relation to the location of different generation sources in Zambia, and the 330 kV substations into which power would be injected, considering the IRP transmission development plan.
Zambia’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is a power sector plan for the next 30 years, which – when developed and implemented – will transform the sector to become diverse, climate resilient, financially stable and capable of providing high quality and affordable service to customers countrywide.
The overall objective of the IRP project is to develop the 30-year power sector plan.
The IRP will comprise an assessment of Zambia’s future energy needs and a plan to meet those future needs. It will be ‘integrated’ in that it will examine both demand side resources (conservation, energy efficiency, etc.) as well as supply side resources (generation/power plants, transmission lines, etc.) in making its recommendations on how best to meet future energy needs in Zambia.
The IRP project was officially launched by the Minister of Energy, Hon. Mathew Nkhuwa, MP, on 24 March 2021. The development of the 30-year power sector plan is expected to run until March 2022, with assistance from UK Aid and other Cooperating Partners.
Over the last two decades, Zambia has seen its environment increasingly altered by the effects of climate change such as drought. This has impacted on Zambia’s energy sector which is hydro-dependent, leading to power shortages. In addition, the sector faces financial challenges owing to inadequate revenues.
Therefore, the IRP will seek to address four main challenges faced by the energy sector:
Traditionally, Zambia has relied on hydropower to meet the electricity consumption needs of both commercial and non-commercial consumers. Hydropower accounts for 82% of Zambia’s total electricity output. Over the last decade, however, Zambia’s hydropower sources have become increasingly susceptible to climatic changes leading to shortages of power supply across the country. Through the IRP, Zambia’s energy sector will have the opportunity to investigate the viability of alternative sources of energy, particularly those in the renewables space such as wind and solar power generation.
In Zambia, the last decade has seen an increase in climatic variability, which has negatively impacted the capacity of the country’s two largest hydropower stations to produce sufficient power to meet the nation’s consumption patterns. The risk from climate change is compounded by increasing competition for available water resources for agriculture, industry, and human consumption. In developing an IRP, the Zambian government will not only provide for alternative sources of energy, but plan for – and mitigate – the future climate change impacts likely to be faced by the country.
Sector arrears to Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have accrued over the past five years in part due to power procurements made at a significantly higher cost than power from existing hydro generation sources. The increased cost of power production has not been sufficiently factored into end-user tariffs, resulting in the accumulation of arrears under power purchase agreements. The IRP will provide a roadmap for sector financial sustainability, and thereby build confidence with investors and lenders to support priority investments in power generation, transmission, and distribution in Zambia in the years ahead.
The last three decades have seen a steady increase in Zambia’s population as well as an expansion in new areas of economic activity away from the capital city of Lusaka and the mining towns of the Copperbelt and North-western provinces. This has caused an increase in the Zambia’s energy demand. However, eight of the country’s ten provinces remain under-served with restricted and unstable grid connectivity. To meet this rising demand, Zambia must extend the grid to connect emerging areas of economic activity and population centres, as well as to parts of the country that have promising renewable energy resources. A strategy for addressing these grid management challenges is a key component of the IRP.
The key outcomes of implementing the IRP include:
Overall, the implementation of the IRP will improve access to clean, reliable, and affordable electricity for all at the lowest total environmental, social, economic, and financial cost.
The IRP will ensure that the energy sector is able to play its role to advance economic growth, job creation, and investment in the economy, and to extend energy access to the whole of Zambia’s population.
If you are interested in learning more or getting involved, please contact us.
